Posted: 6:45 am Thursday, November 10th, 2016
By Jamie Dupree
Donald Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton on Tuesday was fueled in part by a big surge in votes for the Republican in the Rust Belt, the Upper Midwest and Iowa, as Democrats were unable to motivate their supporters to turn out to vote in large enough numbers to offset Trump’s gains in more rural areas.
The Rust Belt was turning red already. Donald Trump just pushed it along.
— LeyvaWilde (@LeyvaWilde) November 10, 2016
1. Clinton unable to repeat Obama path to victory. In several key states, Donald Trump was able to flip enough counties that had voted for President Obama in 2012, and make sure that Hillary Clinton came up short in her quest for victory. In Florida, Clinton only won nine counties. She took only seven in Ohio. Eleven in Pennsylvania. Just five in Iowa. It was the same formula in each state – Clinton did fine in the urban areas, but Trump rolled up the numbers where he did well. And it was lethal for Clinton.
The story of this election is Clinton generally outperformed Obama in his counties, but @realDonaldTrump blew it out in Romney counties
— Tony Fabrizio (@TonyFabrizioGOP) November 9, 2016
2. From Blue to Red. Donald Trump changed a lot of the colors on the election maps on Tuesday night, as he overwhelmed what were often normal election strongholds for Democrats. In the state of Ohio, Hillary Clinton was only able to win seven counties as Trump ran up the score against her. In 2012, President Obama had won 16 counties while winning the Buckeye State by two percent. In 2008, Obama had won 22 counties in winning by four percent. One of the more notable switches was Montgomery County, anchored by the city of Dayton in the southwest of Ohio. For the first time since 1988, Montgomery County went Republican, as Trump dominated the state for an easy win.
3. Under votes play a role in race for White House. If you’re not familiar with the term “Under vote” – that’s the number of ballots where a voter does not pick someone for an office. In Michigan, over 110 thousand people did not make a choice for the highest office in the land, leaving that spot blank on their ballot. Donald Trump leads Michigan by only 13,225 votes – meaning those “under votes” could well have made the difference.
Clinton lost MI by 13,225 votes.
110,133 Michiganders cast a ballot w/o voting for President. pic.twitter.com/XHFq4TeDhI
— Marc Love (@marcslove) November 9, 2016
4. The maps tell a story. I can tell you that Trump did better in rural areas than Romney. Or that Clinton squeezed more votes out of urban areas. But to see it on a nationwide map really drives home what happened on Tuesday night, as Trump’s victories surged into the upper Midwest in Wisconsin and Michigan, and then over into Ohio, Pennsylvania and upstate New York.
The shift from 2012 : Trump makes huge gains in rural America. Clinton makes modest gains in the metros, Utah pic.twitter.com/5C12ylrlB9
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
5. The Rust Belt swings hard to Trump. Here is another map that demonstrates how well Trump did – but not all because of his own people getting out to vote. Clinton simply had a difficult time matching the Obama turnout of 2008 and 2012. Whether it was Milwaukee, or Detroit or Cleveland, those key votes for Clinton – many of them from black voters – just did not materialize at the polls in 2016. And when your players don’t get to the polls, you usually don’t win.
Trump ran the Rust Belt because a lot of voters in Democratic bastions there stayed home this year. Purple is drop in total votes vs. 2008. pic.twitter.com/Bu4EQXyFOI
— Brad Heath (@bradheath) November 9, 2016
6. Where did Clinton do better? There were areas where Hillary Clinton was able to perform better than Barack Obama did in 2012. This map shows the location of those 184 counties. If you look closely, most of them are in liberal areas – either cities, certain suburbs and college towns. I can spot Alachua County in the state of Florida, home to the University of Florida, suburban areas right around Washington, D.C., a big chunk around Atlanta and more. But it wasn’t enough.
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 10, 2016
About the Author
Jamie Dupree is the Radio News Director of the Washington Bureau of the Cox Media Group and writes the Washington Insider blog. A native of Washington, D.C., Jamie has covered Congress and politics in the nation’s capital since the Reagan Administration, and has been reporting for Cox since 1989.