Posted: 10:52 pm Monday, April 18th, 2016
By Jamie Dupree
Ready to end several weeks of delegate defeats and questions about whether they can win their party’s nomination for President, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are both poised to grab an important victory in New York’s Primary on Tuesday, hoping it will set each of them on a path to victory at their respective conventions in July.
After a string of rallies in the Empire State, Trump last night finished his argument with a Twitter appeal to voters in New York, arguing Ted Cruz is nothing more than an outsider who doesn’t like the state.
Lyin’ Ted Cruz even voted against Superstorm Sandy aid and September 11th help. So many New Yorkers devastated. Cruz hates New York!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 18, 2016
For Trump, a win in New York would be his first since he won the Arizona Primary on March 22; since then, his organization has been repeatedly outmaneuvered by Ted Cruz supporters, as they won delegates in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Colorado and Wyoming.
95 delegates are at stake for the Republicans in two different ways in New York:
+ 14 statewide delegates could go all to the winner – if that candidate gets more than 50 percent – otherwise, those delegates would be divided up among those getting more than 20 percent of the vote.
+ 81 other delegates are parceled out according to the vote tallies in New York’s 27 Congressional districts. If one candidate gets more than 50 percent, that person wins all 3 delegates in that district. But if the winner is under a majority, then it is two delegates to first place and one to the second place finisher.
In other words, the most important number for Donald Trump on Tuesday night is 50 percent – if he is above that statewide and in many Congressional districts, then he will be the big winner.
Recent polling has been on the side of both Clinton and Trump, as Clinton tries to end a seven state winning streak for Bernie Sanders, and Trump tries to re-extend his lead over Cruz.
NY poll averages:
Clinton 55, Sanders 41
Trump 54, Kasich 22, Cruz 19
— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) April 18, 2016
For Democrats, the delegate equation is very familiar – proportional – as a Clinton win would just make it that much more difficult for Sanders to catch her in the next two months.
When it comes to predicting the result in New York's Dem primary. You either believe the polls or you don't. We'll see…
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) April 17, 2016
Sanders certainly has not sounded like a candidate who is ready to give up his bid for the Democratic nomination if he loses in New York – but a defeat there would make the math even more difficult for his nomination bid.
Clinton’s team meanwhile has been openly deriding and mocking Sanders, making the argument that he can’t win, and that his candidacy only hurts Democrats in November.
This is from Clinton’s press secretary Brian Fallon:
Sanders, last month: "We'll win NY!"
Sanders, last wk: "We'll win NY!"
Sanders, on eve of NY: "Hey look at our bogus allegation abt the DNC"
— Brian Fallon (@brianefallon) April 18, 2016
We’ll see if Clinton and Trump ring the bell in a big way on Tuesday night.
About the Author
Jamie Dupree is the Radio News Director of the Washington Bureau of the Cox Media Group and writes the Washington Insider blog. A native of Washington, D.C., Jamie has covered Congress and politics in the nation’s capital since the Reagan Administration, and has been reporting for Cox since 1989.